Sunday, February 11, 2007

More Inconvenient Truths

Here's my position on Global Warming... the universe is not static; it is dynamic; the only universal certainty is change. The idea of 'Time' is a way to determine the rate of this change. So the Earth at any given time, with or without Man, with or without Life, is either warming or cooling.

Additionally I believe that homo sapiens is not much more than a hairless ape that has developed a sense of self but is not yet deserving of the intellectual arrogance found with the modern 'Chicken-little' approach to global warming. Considering the limited intellectual capacity Nature and evolution have given the species on average, it not difficult to understand how supposition and illogical conclusions are often confused as being 'facts'. I think this idea that God created the entire universe solely for Man is evidence of that unearned arrogance. It is an expression of one of the most common fallacies of reasoning; the Hasty Generalization In the case of the global warming panacea this fallacy is generalized in this way; "There is conclusive evidence that the average global temperature is rising and we humans are the cause of it".

So too is this automatic assumption that because the climate is warming Man is necessarily the cause of it. My personal experience, living most of my life in one place and seeing the patterns change, is that yes it seems to be getting warmer. When I was young the months of Fall were cold and snow in October was not unusual. Now it is late October before the Fall rains even begin. So I see the months shifting. May is what April used to be and November is what October used to be.

In that period I have also lived through a few complete solar cycles, three massive volcanic eruptions, several el/la nina cycles and have noticed they too had a very noticeable effect on the immediate climate. These events have been going on far longer than the hairless ape has blessed the Earth with its presence.

I think the greatest cause of global warming is due to orbital cycles and output fluctuations of the Sun in relation to sea temperatures ( keep in mind that the Earth's surface is mostly water). Mankind and all its efforts dwarf to insignificance when compared to these natural physical phenomena.

There are three major orbital cycles called the Milankovich Cycles.

Eccentricity has a periodicity of 100,000 years.
In simplest terms the Earth's orbit goes from an ellipse to a somewhat circular orbit.

Axial Tilt has a periodicity of 41,000 years.
The tilt of the Earth changes 3 degrees every 41,000 years. Axial tilt is what creates the seasons.
Precession has a periodicity of 23,000 years.
As the tilted Earth moves along its orbit it wobbles on its axis like a spinning top winding down. This compounds the complexity of when, in terms of orbital location, the seasons occur. The periodicity of Precession can be sub-divided to a time frame more applicable to the current theories of man-made global warming.

1/1 Period= 23,000.00 yrs 360.00 degrees of Precession
1/2 Period= 11,500.00 yrs 180.00 degrees of Precession
1/4 Period= 5,750.00 yrs 090.00 degrees of Precession
1/8 Period= 2,875.00 yrs 045.00 degrees of Precession
1/16 Period= 1,437.50 yrs 022.50 degrees of Precession

From this table it should be apparent that a sizable amount of precession occurs in a relatively short period of geologic time. Remember this when an adherent to the idea that global warming is man-made uses nice little graphs to present a short-term view of variations within long-term cycles.

Now couple these orbital variations with climatic influences due to solar variations on ocean temperatures plus tectonic dynamism and it should be quite apparent that humans did not cause the effect of these large-scale events nor can the little hairless-chimp stop the inertia of these natural processes. Any species' quest is to simply hang on for the ride in the way their ancestors did.. adapt or die.


Even if we are all at the mercy of Nature it does not mean that we should not endeavor to improve and maintain our environment for our and future generations' quality of life. Yes, we need to reduce the amount of crap we are putting in the air and aquifers. We need to make alternate sources of energy economically viable. We need to aim to be like that little message I've seen in various places: "Take what you need, No more No Less, When you're done, Clean up your mess".

In the end when the advocates of human induced global warming get into the details of their belief it is usually just concerns about short-term environmental concerns; our water or air and natural resources. They tend to 'sex-up' their environmental concerns and sell their case with visions of wailing and gnashing of teeth.

In order to adapt we need to get rid of all the politically driven hysteria and address the real issues like clean air, clean water and clean energy. Not as a threat to the planet but as a way to improve quality of life.

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